FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group C

Basketball Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -

Country: China

FIBA Ranking: 9

Head Coach: Bob Donewald

Key Players: Yi Jianlian, Wang Zhizhi, Sun Yue

Overview: China will be without the services of superstar Yao Ming as he continues to battle injuries, however, they still have talented players in Yi and Sun. Expect a strong showing as the sport of basketball continues to grow in popularity in the most populous country in the world.

Strengths: Unlike a lot of teams in this tournament, China has great height at all positions. It's a very versatile team with front court players that possess face-up and perimeter skills to go along with smooth and finesse-type low-post games.

Weaknesses: China's guards may have great height but that's about it. With the exception of Sun, the Chinese guard play is not as developed as their play in the front court, and that can present problems in turning the ball over when under pressure, not to mentioned weak shooting from beyond the arc.

Tournament Expectations: China will be fighting for the top spot in group C with Greece. It should easily make it to the Round of 16 and China has a realistic chance at making it to the semi finals in the tournament. If they want to make it that far, the Chinese will need to get stronger guard play than they've had in past international events.

Country: Cote d'Ivoire

FIBA Ranking: 41

Head Coach: Randoald Dessarzin

Key Player: Pape-Philippe Amagou

Overview: After an inspired performance at the 2009 FIBA Africa Championship that saw it capture a silver medal, Cote d'Ivoire will be making its the first FIBA World Championship appearance since 1986.

Strengths: The team is young, athletic and plays well in the open court. This strength is further bolstered because its big guys can run the floor. Like most teams defined by athleticism, Cote d'Ivoire is adept at slashing to the basket as opposed to spotting up for jumpers.

Weaknesses: With only have two players that can be considered true "bigs", grabbing rebounds and defending the paint with be a problem for this team. Its offense is also one-dimensional with a lack of strong perimeter shooting.

Tournament Expectations: The Ivory Coast is not expected to make it out of the group stage. They will most likely finish last in group C and that is because every other team in the group will be able to take advantage of their undersized roster. This is a team that will struggle to win a single game.

Country: Greece

FIBA Ranking: 4

Head Coach: Jonas Kazlauskas

Key Players: Vassilis Spanoulis, Dimitris Diamantidis

Overview: The storied history of Greek basketball will continue to be written, and its hoping to do one place better in this year's world championship after capturing silver at the 2006 world championship.

Strengths: Greece boasts deadly accurate shooters and a strong interior presence that can stymie attackers in the lane. They are one of the most well balanced teams in the tournament and, if they execute their half-court sets the way they can, they are also one of the most exciting teams to watch if fundamental basketball is to your liking.

Weaknesses: A major reason why Greece plays so solidly fundamentally is because they do not have the athleticism required to play a more up tempo, freestyle game. They have the shooters to get themselves back into contests, but those shooters still require time to get to the right spots within their offense, thus, if the game starts to speed up, their game plan will be disrupted.

Tournament Expectations: Greece will vie for first place in group C with China. With its all-around skill and depth, it should finish first in the group. Beyond that, Greece is one of the teams that can aim for winning it all as it remains one of the few countries with its full roster of talent.

Country: Russia

FIBA Ranking: 17

Head Coach: David Blatt

Key Players: J.R. Holden, Viktor Khryapa

Overview: Traditional powerhouse Russia has seen a turn for the worse lately, as evidenced by its seventh-place finish in EuroBasket 2009. The program is going through a state of transition with a lot of the previous staple players getting up in their years and with no younger players emerging to take the mantle. This tournament looks like it will be a place for Russia to find a player to carry on the Russian basketball tradition moving forward.

Strengths: The team's primary players comprise of guys who have been there before and will not be flustered by the bright lights of an international tournament. Their big men have a small amount of versatility in that they can step outside to knock down mid to long range shots, but they feel most comfortable in the post. The team also plays solid defense, anchored by this year's Euroleague top defender, Khryapa.

Weaknesses: Its overall offense is weak because it relies far too heavily on Holden. If he cannot get it going, then the offense has a tendency to stagnate because of the lack of creativity on the offensive end to get other players involved.

Tournament Expectations: With first and second in group C probably going to Greece and China, Russia will almost certainly be competing for third and fourth with Puerto Rico and Turkey. This three-way clash in the group will prove to be entertaining, but, based on the factors of talent, youth and home- court, it wouldn't be a stretch to see Russia on the outside looking in.

Country: Puerto Rico

FIBA Ranking: 10

Head Coach: Manuel Cintron

Key Players: J.J. Barea, Carlos Arroyo

Overview: After being eliminated in the group stage of the 2006 FIBA World Championship and being able to qualify for the 2008 Olympics, Puerto Rico make its return to the international stage and will look to reclaim the past successes it experienced at the 2002 World Championship and the 2004 Olympics.

Strengths:

With two of the best point guards in the tournament running the show, offence will come easy to Puerto Rico. Both Barea and Arroyo are smart decision makers, knowing when and where to get the ball to a teammate as well as when to decide to look for their own on offense.

Weaknesses:

What Barea and Arroyo do great offensively also has an equal bad part defensively. They both do not defend particularly well. This is an overall theme of the Puerto Rican guards as they will have be broken down too early on the perimeter, putting their big men in difficult predicaments to save a basket.

Tournament Expectations: Puerto Rico will be a part of the aforementioned three-team battle in Group C. With its talent, it should be able to capture third place in the group. Judging by the way the draws have been expected to play out in the Round of 16, Puerto Rico will have a good chance at advancing to the quarter finals.

Country: Turkey

FIBA Ranking: 18

Head Coach: Bogdan Tanjevic

Key Players: Hedo Turkoglu, Ersan Ilyasova

Overview: Nine years ago, Turkey hosted EuroBasket 2001 and ended up with a silver medal. They are hoping the same perfect storm of good fortune and exceptional play will lead them to another great success on home soil in this year's world championship.

Strengths:

The home-court advantage is not to be underestimated, as teams always play better in front of their home fans, and having an entire nation as home fans will only fire up the Turkish players even more. Besides from what being the host nation can do, Turkey's other strength is in its versatility. The team's two best scorers, Turkoglu and Ilyasova, are front court players who can handle the ball decently, shoot it well and pass it even better. This allows the rest of the team to play off the two forwards like they are point guards.

Weaknesses: The team is coming in with a lot of players who had poor seasons, including Turkoglu, especially in shooting the ball. This glaring fault may have been covered up if they were athletic enough to get to the hole consistently, but that's not the case here.

Tournament Expectations: Turkey will probably come out of the three-team fight for third and fourth place in Group C, beating out Russia for the fourth and final advancing spot. It's not likely it will advance past the Round of 16 but, with how emotional some of the players can be, and the positive vibes that will be surrounding the team everywhere they are during the tournament, it could end up upsetting some big teams.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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