Edwards confident in reclaiming Bills QB job

Football Betting Lines

09/07/2010 -

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - Shortly after Buffalo Bills coach Chan Gailey finished discussing how much Trent Edwards has improved this preseason, the quarterback in question walked by and took a spot on a bench outside the locker room.

``I think he's gotten better, and that's the best way I can judge somebody,'' Gailey said after practice Monday, providing his first in-depth insight on Edwards since naming him the starter two days earlier. ``I've seen a light at the end of the tunnel. And that's what you're looking for.''

However bright that glimmer is - or how much Edwards might have overheard - is not entirely apparent.

So when it was Edwards' turn to speak to reporters, the quarterback wasn't prepared to acknowledge he's accomplished anything just yet by having won a three-way, offseason-long competition for the job.

``I'm fortunate to be in the position I am,'' Edwards said. ``But I can't sit here and be proud of myself by any means.''

What does mean something to Edwards is the insight he's drawn from the few ups and many downs he's endured in three previous seasons in Buffalo. He's gone from being a fan-favorite as a rookie starter to having many of those same supporters derisively label him ``Captain Checkdown'' and ``Trent-ative'' a year ago before being benched midway through last season.

``I feel like I've been through a lot in my career here. I feel like I've seen it all,'' Edwards said. ``I've seen the highs and lows and I'm still standing here.''

With a newfound perspective, Edwards prepares to make the most of his second chance in leading the Bills as they get ready to host Miami in the season-opener on Sunday.

It's a fresh start for the former third-round draft pick out of Stanford, who spent the past three seasons struggling to find his rhythm in a conservative attack employed by defensive-minded coach Dick Jauron, who was fired in November.

That's all changed under Gailey, an offensive specialist who has introduced a more aggressive approach.

Edwards refuses to dwell too much on what happened in the past.

``I know we want to sit here and try to find reasons on why we're working better, and why we weren't last year,'' Edwards said. ``For some reason, we're clicking right now.''

What's evident is the increase in production the offense enjoyed this preseason when Edwards led the starters to score five touchdowns in four games. That was a switch from last year, when the Bills starting offense was limited to two field goals in five preseason games.

Just as important, Edwards has begun shedding the checkdown label by showing he is, in fact, capable of completing deep passes.

This preseason, he connected on four passes of at least 25 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown to Lee Evans. In seven regular-season starts last year, Edwards completed just 11 passes over 25 yards - and that was despite the Bills offense featuring the one-two receiving tandem of Evans and Terrell Owens.

Evans is impressed by what he's seen from Edwards, who has proven to be more assertive on and off the field.

``You see him taking control of the quarterback position. And what I mean by that, he's understanding what defense are trying to do and making adjustments,'' Evans said. ``From his point of view, people can't be telling him what (the adjustments) are, he has to see them. And so that's where he's grown.''

Bills defenders have even seen a change in Edwards.

``He's carrying himself like a veteran quarterback,'' defensive end Marcus Stroud said. ``Despite what everybody was saying and writing him off and everything, he still came in here like he was the leader, like he was the starting quarterback. And everybody took notice of that.''

Edwards was conscious to make sure he carried himself with more confidence in a bid to lead by example.

``I'm carrying myself the way I want to see my teammates carry themselves,'' he said. ``That's what I want out of my teammates and that's the attitude and approach I'm taking.''

As impressed as Gailey's been, so far, he's aware there will be challenges ahead. One key to Edwards' success is getting protection from an offensive line that hasn't been healthy this preseason. Another key is Edwards continuing to develop.

``He's got a chance to have a very good year,'' Gailey said. ``But we've got to keep progressing.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines

New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
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