Diaz helps Braves slip past slumping Phils

Baseball Betting Lines

07/02/2009 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Diaz belted a go-ahead RBI double in a three-run eighth, as the Atlanta Braves recorded their first home sweep of the Phillies since 2005 with a 5-2 victory at Turner Field.

Garret Anderson added a two-run homer in that fateful inning, as the Braves swept Philadelphia for the first time at home since April 22-24, 2005. It was the first sweep of the reigning World Series champs since April 2-5, 2007.

Diaz finished the game 3-for-4 with a pair of runs scored, while Casey Kotchman went 2-for-2 with a two-run homer, as the Braves have now won a season-high four straight games. Mike Gonzalez (3-0) pitched a scoreless eighth to earn the win, and Rafael Soriano earned his seventh save of the season.

Javier Vazquez got a no-decision after yielding two runs on seven hits with five strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings.

Jimmy Rollins snapped a career-worst 0-for-28 skid with a 2-for-4 night, but it was of no use, as the Phillies fell into a virtual tie with the Marlins for first place atop the NL East standings after losing three straight and 14 of 18 overall.

J.A. Happ pitched well in the start, allowing only two runs on seven hits and a pair of walks, with five strikeouts. in seven strong innings.

The Phillies inserted Ryan Madson (2-4) to keep the game tied in the home eighth, but the Braves forged ahead. Brian McCann led off with a single after an 0-2 count, and Yunel Escobar sacrificed pinch-runner Jair Jurrjens to second. Diaz followed with an RBI double to deep center field to give Atlanta a 3-2 lead.

After Diaz stole third, Anderson hit a towering home run to right field for a comfortable 5-2 edge. Soriano set the Phillies down in order to finish the win.

The Braves put runners on first and third with nobody out in the second for the game's first scoring chance. Happ, though, was up to the task, striking out Jeff Francoeur and Vazquez amidst a Kotchman walk to load the bases. A fielder's choice groundout by Gregor Blanco ended the frame.

Vazquez held the Phillies off the board for the first four innings, and Atlanta finally scored in the home half on Kotchman's two-run homer far beyond the wall in right field.

Happ's first career hit in the fifth helped Philadelphia put two runners on base with two outs, but Shane Victorino lined out sharply to shortstop Escobar to end the threat.

The Phillies finally got to Vazquez in the sixth, knocking him out of the game. Chase Utley led off with a single and moved to second two batters later, as Jayson Werth was hit by a pitch. Greg Dobbs followed with a double to deep center, although Utley barely scored after the center fielder Blanco acted as if he would catch the ball before it bounced over his head.

Vazquez was pulled in favor of Peter Moylan, who allowed an the tying RBI groundout by Pedro Feliz before getting out of the inning.

The Braves put runners on the corners with two outs in the seventh for Chipper Jones, who flied out weakly on a 3-1 pitch to help Happ escape from yet another jam.

Philadelphia nearly pushed across the go-ahead run in the eighth. Werth drew a one-out walk, and, with two outs, stole second and moved to third on a throwing error by the catcher McCann. A wild pitch sent Werth scrambling for home, but McCann got the ball as it bounced off the backstop and tossed it to Gonzalez, who was able to tag out Werth in time to end the inning.

Game Notes

After going 14-4 against Atlanta last season, the Phillies are 6-9 against them this year...Philadelphia outfielder Raul Ibanez will not join the team this weekend against the Mets after having his rehab start pushed back to Friday...It was Anderson's first career pinch-hit homer...Atlanta will begin a 10-game road trip on Friday against Washington.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.